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Copyright © 1994-98, by the Middle East Data Project, Inc. All rights reserved.
President Mohammad Khatami, who announced shortly after November's brutal murder of dissident political leaders Darioush and Parvaneh Forouhar that he would bring the killers to justice, has been warned by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i and other top regime officials to abandon the investigation and to slow the pace of reforms, the Iran Brief has learned from sources inside Iran. If not, he was told he would be removed from office and possibly put on trial, for "failing to safeguard the independence and security of the nation," the sources said.
The warning was issued during an extraordinary two day session at Ayatollah Khamene'i's Tehran house which began after Friday prayers on January 15. Khatami was presented with a letter vowing to remove his government from office that was signed by 86 members of the 270-seat Parliament, with pledges from another 108 members to join the letter if he resisted their demands. In a separate meeting, Khatami advisor Abdallah Nouri, a former minister of Interior, urged him to face up to the hard-liners and call their bluff, a move aimed at provoking a public showdown. On the second evening, noting the presence of many members of the security forces at Khamene'i's private compound, Khatami chose instead to back down.
The extraordinary factional fighting taking place within the ruling clergy was sparked by the brutal murder of the Forouhars on November 22. On January 5, the Intelligence Ministry acknowledged that its own operatives had carried out the killings, without authorization. (See "MOIS admits to killing Forouhar," TIB 1/11/99). Two days later, the pro-Khatami daily Salam reported that Khatami had told supporters he planned to sack Intelligence Minister Qorbanali Dori Najafabadi and assume direct control over the Intelligence Ministry himself. And then another Khatami supporter dropped a bombshell, saying Khatami intended to re-open political murder cases dating back several years. "A committee will soon be set up to investigate the mystery murders," said Saeed Leylaz.
That sparked an outraged public reaction from the hard-liners, and fear that Khatami would end up shaking the regime to its very foundations. On January 8 the hard-line daily Jomhouri Eslami blasted Khatami supporters: "Any move aimed at weakening the morale of the devoted intelligence forces [is part of] the same plot the designers of the recent murders had been following." Ayatollah Khamene'i blamed "foreign elements" of being behind the Forouhar murders. "These murders aimed to damage the system and the government," he said. Khamene'i stepped in to block a request by the UN Human Rights Commission to send a team of investigators to Iran to look into the Forouhar murders, apparently fearing they would discover embarrassing facts about the regime's security apparatus and methods of suppressing internal and external dissent.
On January 11 Iran's leading dissident cleric, Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, joined the fray, calling for a "deep and complete purge of [MOIS] personnel." His statement appeared in Khordad, a pro-reform daily run by Abdallah Nouri that began publishing in December and has angered hard-liners for its calls for democracy and respect for human rights.
On the 15th, only hours before the meeting at Khamene'i's house was scheduled to begin, Ansar-e Hezbollah thugs disrupted a mass prayer service in Isfahan led by Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri, a popular Montazeri supporter and the Friday prayer leader in Isfahan. Thousands of Montazeri supporters had gathered to listen to Taheri, who openly backs Khatami in the factional struggle, when hard-liners threw an iron bar at him and cut the wires to the public address system, forcing him off the stage. He addressed some 70,000 followers at the Eid-e Fitr celebrations three days later.
Not to be bettered in the spin battle, a former deputy intelligence minister, Ruhollah Hosseinian, appeared on a state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting television program, accusing pro-Khatami elements within MOIS of having carried out the killings. That prompted an outraged reply from Khatami supporters, who demanded that IRIB Director Ali Larijani, a well-known hard-liner, step down or at the very least be banned from attending Cabinet sessions.
This stepped-up pace of open confrontation between hard-liners and advocates of reform set the stage for the extraordinary summons sent to Khatami on January 14, to join Supreme Leader Khamene'i and other top clerics for the iftar dinner the next day. The hard-liners consider MOIS the cornerstone of their grip on power; Khatami's assault on the Ministry is seen as a direct challenge to their own authority.
Thirteen people attended the meeting, which began at 3:30 PM after Friday prayers on January 15. Ayatollah Khamene'i was accompanied by four of his closest advisors and by Hojj. Mohammadi-Golpayegani, the head of his office and a key figure in operational decisions regarding anti-dissident operations. Also attending were former President Rafsanjani, Majlis speaker Nateq-Nouri, Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani (who was ill and would miss the second day's session), the head of the Judiciary branch, Ayatollah Yazdi, Intelligence Minister Dori-Najafabadi, and the head of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, Maj. Gen. Rahim Safavi.
Rafsanjani's tirade: Opening the meeting, Khamene'i said that the situation in the country had reached a critical stage, and that he had called the meeting in response to a request presented to him the night before by Rafsanjani and IRGC commander Safavi. Turning to Rafsanjani, he asked him to present his analysis. Rafsanjani launched into a tirade against Khatami, accusing him of throwing into jeopardy the very existence of the regime. "An ocean of stability has been changed during the last 14 months into a stormy sea," he said. Khatami had done more damage to the Islamic Republic than Gorbachev did to the Soviet Union, he added. "During the past 20 years, the policies of Imam Khomeini and the revolutionary forces have succeeded in creating a well-knotted rope to serve as a life line of security and stability for the Islamic Republic," he said. "The policies of the President are unraveling that rope."
Rafsanjani went on to complain that Khatami's liberalizing policies had the effect of fostering open defiance of the regime. "People are not afraid any longer of openly stating their opposition to the regime," he said. "Opposition elements inside and outside the country have recovered new energy and life and are mobilized against us.
"For twenty years, we have not hesitated to deal in a revolutionary way with our enemies in Iran and abroad, and this without facing at any time the demand of an international investigation committee coming to this country. The policies of the president are resulting in the interference of foreign forces in our affairs," Rafsanjani said.
"When I was in charge during 10 to 12 years, I succeeded in silencing all opposition. In spite of the ruthless way it was done, protests were not only negligible but on the contrary we had the vast support of foreign countries and their economic assistance.
"The ministry of intelligence, which is the backbone of the regime, has suffered irreparable damage. This development is affecting the moral of all revolutionary forces. I have been informed by the head of the revolutionary guards that even within the guardians of the revolution anxiety is spreading that after the Ministry of Intelligence similar investigations can happen there as well.
Addressing Khatami directly, he said: "What you have done is worse than the actions of the late Shah. He arrested politicians who had worked with him, but he never jailed members of the security forces as you have started to do. How dare you put on trial members of the security forces and highly-placed members of the intelligence ministry! For long years they have worked for us and under our leadership. What would be their answers in court? That they have executed our orders? If so, all of us will have to pay the price and there should be no illusions, if this happens: all of us with our religious dress shall have no say anymore in this society. If the investigations are continued on the lines decided on by the President, this will lead to the condemnation of the regime as a whole and its ultimate collapse."
Rafsanjani then said that he had discussed these developments with Revolutionary Guards commander Safavi, and obliquely warned that the two agreed that "no development can be excluded, even if it involves actions outside of the system."
After Rafsanjani, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi told the group that the investigation into the Forouhar murders had led to an "unbearable situation," and that the Judiciary was completely at a loss how to handle the case. Given that the Minister of Intelligence is a member of the religious establishment with a long background in Parliament, "his indictment would be a blow to the whole establishment. For that reason, we must close the file now, without wasting any more time," Yazdi argued.
Khatami replies: Khatami took almost an entire hour to respond to the criticism, making the following points, according to sources familiar with the meeting:
- the government as a whole is responsible for all aspects of the people's security;
- the government is obliged to answer questions raised by the population relating to the killings;
- the people are entitled to know those responsible for these actions. The truth will come out in any case;
- only by stating the truth can the government can gain the confidence of the population.
Khatami then demanded the resignation of the Ministry of Intelligence and a complete reorganization of the Ministry, "with clear terms of reference and the appointment of professionals."
As it was getting late, Ayatollah Khamene'i then asked the participants to return the next day for iftar to make final decisions on what to do.
The ultimatum: When Khatami arrived at Ayatollah Khamene'i's residence the following afternoon, January 16, the compound was full of people, including a large number of security forces. The crowd and the mood of unease were very different from the day before.
The second day's meeting began with Khatami reiterating his demand for the resignation of the Minister of Intelligence, and for the removal of Ayatollah Khamene'i's personal representative to the MOIS, Pour Mohammadi.
After hearing him, Khamene'i asked Majlis speaker Nateq-Nouri to show Khatami the letter he had brought with him. Nateq Nouri took out a petition signed by 86 members of Parliament requesting that he convene a special session of Parliament for a vote of no confidence that would remove the government "for deteriorating economic conditions and for its inability to safeguard the independence and security of the country."
Nateq-Nouri added that a further 106 members of Parliament had indicated they would sign the petition the following day, if there was no resolution at that night's meeting. Rafsanjani said that publishing the letter or convening the Parliament to remove the government would provoke an open crisis, which had to be avoided at all costs. Instead, they should try to work together to find a joint solution.
Khamene'i then asked Ayatollah Yazdi to read two statements of policy that had been prepared. Khatami was asked to choose which he preferred.
Option 1: Following the removal of the government by the Parliament, a state of emergency would be declared by Ayatollah Khamene'i, and under his leadership the National Security Council would handle the affairs of State.
Option 2: The investigative committee set up by the president would issue a statement declaring that the killings had been the work of a small renegade group within the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, absolving the Ministry itself and the security forces.
Faced with the ultimatum, Khatami asked for time to consult with his closest advisors, who were not present at the meeting.
Returning briefly to his own residence, Khatami met with former Interior Minister Abdollah Nouri, whom he said was just returning to Tehran from Isfahan, and with Mir Hossein Moussavi, a former leftist Prime Minister. Nouri was in favor of allowing the Parliament to remove the government, since this would bring things to a head; Moussavi argued against it. He feared that the mood would turn nasty at Khamene'i's residence, and that Khatami's refusal to go along with the plan to close the investigation would prompt the security forces to arrest him on the spot, and perhaps put him on trial. Abdallah Nouri argued they wouldn't dare take such a move against a popularly-elected president, but it was Moussavi who prevailed.
When Khatami returned to the meeting at Khamene'i's residence, he accepted the proposed statement of the investigating committee (Option 2). As a concession, Khamene'i and the others agreed that the Intelligence Minister would resign after two months. They also agreed that factions within the government should avoid unilateral decisions, and that Khamene'i would play the arbiter's role between them.
Late that evening, the investigating committee released its findings, which were read aloud on state-run radio and television. It said that "none of the [regime's] political groups or factions are in any way involved" in the murders. Knowing that MOIS "could not accept such a hateful, dirty crime, they acted on their own, without referring to their superiors." The committee instructed the police to quietly release the killers. The eight persons who remain in custody are said by sources familiar with the investigation to be "common criminals." (The sources said Rafsanjani tried to convince Khatami on the eve of the committee's first report, on January 4, to blame the murders on the criminals and to execute them after extracting confessions from them under torture, a proposal Khatami rejected as "absurd.")
On Monday evening, the 18th, Khamene'i took part in prayers for the Eid-e Fitr celebrations marking the end of Ramadan, and publicly called on all factions to end their dispute over the Forouhar murder investigation. He also let slip a cryptic reference to the tumultuous weekend meetings. "During the past 14 months," he said, "destructive forces were at work trying to undermine the might of the Islamic Republic."
Al Hayat in London reported that leaflets had been distributed in Isfahan in the days before the weekend meetings, asserting that five hard-line clerics, including Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, a close confidant of Khamene'i, had signed fatwas calling for the murder of dissidents. It also claimed Jannati was trying to get Qom clerics to sign a petition declaring Khatami unfit for office. At Friday prayers, only hours before the secret meetings at Khamene'i's residence began, Rafsanjani told worshippers: "Debating in a quarrelsome manner and speaking to one another through the press and various platforms is not right. All these personalities know one another. They can sit together and talk."
It's not over until it's over: But the hard-liners weren't ready to back down so fast. On Monday January 20, two motorcyclists threw a stun grenade into the Tehran offices of Abdallah Nouri's Khordad newspaper, shattering windows and slightly injuring two reporters. A few minutes later, an unidentified caller warned the newspaper that a bomb would be used in the next attack, unless the paper changed its editorial line.
Also on Monday, the hard-line Hezbollah of Isfahan group threatened to "carry out its political, revolutionary and religious duty, even to the point of martyrdom" against Ayatollah Jalaledin Taheri, in comments published in the daily Asr-e-Azadegan newspaper.
On Tuesday, the state prosecutor charged with the Forouhar murder investigation, Mohammad Niazi, announced that the killers had been let in to the Forouhar house by a "trusted friend" of the family, and had presented themselves as film-makers who sought to portray the modest life-style of the dissidents. The killers followed Mrs. Forouhar upstairs, where she had gone to change, and killed her there, Niazi said. They killed her husband at his desk where they had set up cameras for the fake photo shoot, leaving knives thrust in both victims' hearts. This method of killing, including the use of a confidant to betray the victim, has been frequently used by MOIS to kill other dissidents, mainly in Europe. (A lawyer for the family, Dr. Karim Lahiji, disputed the existence of a collaborator. "Our own investigations show that the murderers, all agents of the Information Ministry, had entered the house under their own names and without any Trojan Horse.")
One indication that Khatami was holding up his end of the bargain struck during the weekend meeting at Khamene'i's residence was a speech he gave to a massive youth rally at Tehran's Azadi stadium on February 2, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the return to Iran of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979. After urging young people to vote in upcoming elections, but warned: ''poisonous winds are blowing inside and outside the country and enemies are attempting to separate you from the Islamic revolution and the system.''
President Khatami, who is described by close associates as "weak-willed," "indecisive," and "non-confrontational," appears fundamentally unsuited for the tough confrontations of the weeks and months ahead. If his decision to retreat from a confrontation last month is any indication, the much-heralded "Prague spring" in Tehran is over, with violence and bloodshed to come.