The Iran Brief®

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Issue Number 45, dated 4/6/98

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The Great Game in Afghanistan (Serial 4501)

Iran, Russia, Pakistan and the United States are locked in ahigh-stakes struggle over natural gas export routes, that willdetermine the energy future of hundreds of millions of people inSouth Asia. As in the 1980s, the policy game will be fought on thebattlefields of Afghanistan, once this winter's snows have melted andthe Iranian and Russian-backed Northern alliance launches theirlong-expected offensive from their stronghold in Mazar-e Sharifagainst the Taleban, and perhaps later, Kabul.

Senior government officials in Pakistan detailed the extraordinaryand little-known Iranian involvement during recent interviews withIran Brief publisher Kenneth R. Timmerman in Islamabad. "Putsimply," said one top Pakistani official, "Iran wants to blockcompanies from building natural gas pipelines across Afghanistan, inthe hope those pipelines will be built across Iran. A secondary goalof the Iranians is to keep the United States out of the region. Soinstability in Afghanistan serves their strategic purpose."

I. The UNOCAL project: On the economic front lines is Texas oilcompany, UNOCAL, which is heading a consortium of six internationalcompanies and the government of Turkmenistan in a project to build a1,271 kilometer pipeline from the vast Dauletabad natural gas fieldin Turkmenistan to Multan, Pakistan. Last year, the consortiumannounced it hoped to begin construction on the $1.9 billion projectby the end of 1998, and said they were in negotiations with India andPakistan to extend the pipeline an additional 587 kilometers to servethe New Delhi area.

That announcement caused a furor in Tehran, which has been trying- so far, in vain - to convince oil majors to build Central Asian oiland gas export routes across Iran. Tehran was heartened by theClinton administration's approval late last year of a rival projectfeaturing Royal Dutch Shell to build a gas pipeline from Turkmenistanto Turkey, crossing Iran. While Iran would not have benefited fromthe energy resources of that pipeline, it would have reapedsubstantial transit fees. But more importantly, Washington'sacquiescence was viewed in Tehran as a significant enticement toother oil majors, and prompted NIOC to announce it would soon offernew oil and gas field development projects to international biddingon buy-back schemes. At an oil conference in Tehran on March 16, NIOCexploration chief, Mahmoud Mohaddes, spoke of more than 100 differentprojects across Iran that were "wide open" to foreign development."We invite all foreign companies and contractors to join us todevelop and explore for our oil and gas," he told participants.

Further complicating the picture, Iran is trying to get Pakistanto accept a competing natural gas supply project being championed byBroken Hill Proprietary Co. Ltd. of Australia (BHP), that would bringIranian natural gas from South Pars to Pakistan through a directpipeline. Iranian officials met with BHP's new high-powered lobbyist- former British foreign secretary Malcolm Rifkind - in Tehran onMarch 2, and spoke in mid-March of a "revived partnership" with BHP.The Australian company came close to signing a pipeline deal inFebruary 1996, but backed off at the threat of U.S. sanctions becausethe company's extensive U.S. holdings would have been hurt. (See"Australia's BHP cool to pipeline deal," TIB 2/5/96 for a list ofBHP's U.S. assets).

UNOCAL partners: UNOCAL's biggest partner is Delta Gas PipelineCompany (Central Asia) Limited, a private Saudi company that hastaken a 15 percent stake in the project. Iran has viewed Delta'sparticipation with distrust, especially given the Saudi involvementin backing the Taleban in Afghanistan. Pro-Taleban commentsattributed to a UNOCAL representative in Pakistan late last yearprompted harsh reactions from rival Afghan factions, and led thecompany to brief other rebel leaders on the benefits the pipelinewould bring a unified Afghan government. "We are not choosing sidesor getting involved in their internal politics," a company spokesman,Terry Covington, told The Iran Brief recently. "We have briefed AhmedShah Masood, and we have briefed the different partners in thenorthern alliance, but we are not going to cut a deal with aparticular faction. This pipeline, if it is built, will be forAfghanistan, not for any particular faction."

To promote their cause, UNOCAL has gotten involved on the ground.Last October, they started financing educational programs inpipeline-laying and maintenance skills for young Afghans in areasunder Taleban control. "The U.S. government has been supportive ofthis project from a strategic point of view, but we are in thisbecause of the economics," Covington said.

UNOCAL's plan calls for the pipeline to follow theHerat-to-Kandahar Road through Afghanistan, crossing the border intoPakistan near Quetta and heading north to Multan. Most of the Afghanroute is currently controlled by Taleban, except for areassurrounding Herat.

Other consortium members are Indonesia Petroleum, Ltd., and CIECOTransAsia Gas Ltd., Japanese-controlled firms which each have a shareof 7.22%; Hyundai Engineering, which has 5.56%, and Crescent Steeland Allied Products, Ltd., of Pakistan, which has a 3.89% stake. Thegovernment of Turkmenistan has a 7% share.

II. Covert action inside Pakistan: Pakistani officials and foreigndiplomats in Islamabad believe Iran has launched an extensive programof covert action inside Pakistan, coupled with massive armsdeliveries to the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, aimed atsabotaging the UNOCAL pipeline.

The Pakistani government has accused Iran of stirring up sectarianfighting between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in Pakistan, as part ofthis larger strategy to destabilize Pakistan and put pressure on itsgovernment. Pakistani officials say they have "concrete evidence"that diplomats posted to Iranian Cultural Centers in Multan, Mandar,Karachi, and Lahore have funneled cash to Shiite extremists forterrorist attacks. "They are priming Shia violence and trying todestroy our country," one senior official said.

The role of the Iranian cultural centers exploded into view inFebruary 1997, when Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency(ISI) discovered specific evidence that traced the Lahore High Courtbombing to the Iranian Cultural Center in Multan. "We warned theIranians that fingers were pointing at them," officials told The IranBrief. "We posted a warning on the building and offered policeprotection, but this was dismissed by the director of the Center, whosaid it limited his freedom of movement."

The day after the director dismissed the Pakistani police guards,an angry mob attacked the center in Multan killing eight persons,including the director, Muhammad Ali Rahimi. Since then, hundredshave died in sectarian fighting across the country. "Tracking Iranianactivities here is a full-time job," one top Pakistani official said."It has overwhelmed the ISI."

The Multan killing provoked a diplomatic crisis between the twocountries and hot rhetoric on both sides. Iran accused Pakistan offinancing radical Sunni Muslim extremists who have assassinatedShiite leaders in Pakistan and attacked Shiite mosques inside Iran.Last September, gunmen shot dead five Iranian air force techniciansand wounded a sixth outside of Rawalpindi. The Iranians were part ofa 21-man group on a training course sponsored by the PakistaniDefense Ministry and based at a military facility in Wah, about 30 km(19 miles) west of Islamabad. They had been on their way to thearmy's Qasim air base in the city in a passenger van when they wereattacked.

More recently, two Iranian engineers were gunned down on Feb. 21in a terrorist attack at Clifton Bridge in Karachi. Police said thekillings were part of the sectarian violence.

"Iran's goal is to promote Shiism in Pakistan," .a seniorgovernment official in Islamabad said. "They have always targetedactivists from the other groups, but are perfectly willing to kill 20innocent people just to get one activist. This is where we have seenthe involvement of the Iranian cultural centers."

III. Arms to Afghanistan: Over the past eighteen months, Iran hasgotten heavily involved in neighboring Afghanistan, supplyingweapons, training, and even troops to the Northern Alliance battlingthe Taleban, Pakistani government officials told The Iran Brief.

They said the Iranian government has flown more than 250 airshipments of weapons from Iran carrying ammunition, currency,supplies and personnel from Meshed to Mazar-e Sharif and Bamyan.between June 1997 and February 1998. The pace of the weaponsshipments has picked up dramatically in recent weeks. "In one weekrecently, we counted 28 aircraft full of weapons coming into Mazar-eSharif and Shebardan," one official said. "During the first week ofMarch, Iran's deputy foreign minister in charge of Afghan affairs,Alaeddin Borujerdi, traveled to Mazar-e Sharif on five separateoccasions," the official said. "We are expecting there will be abloody fight this spring, once the snows have melted. The Iraniansbrought Gulboddin Hekmatyar back to Mazar-e Sharif from Mashad inFebruary, and are seeking to form a grand alliance, includingMassoud, who is Gulboddin's biggest enemy. They are buying Pashtoungenerals in Kunduz to revolt against the Taleban, and plan todesignate Gulboddin as Prime Minister to give the impression theyhave formed a broad-based government."

Pakistani officials provided these astonishing new details of theIranian effort to arm the Northern Alliance:

• Anti-Taleban forces are being trained at a series of 10 to15 camps operated by the IRGC along Iran's eastern border. Since May1997, 6,000 trained Afghan military personnel have been dispatchedfrom these camps to various war fronts in northern Afghanistan. Mostof Iran's aid has been going to the Hezb-e Wahdat party of AbdulKarim Khalili.

• The IRGC currently has 1500 troops in northern Afghanistan.Some of them have been captured by Taleban, which announced inFebruary that it was releasing 112 Iranian POWs captured in lastyear's fighting.

• Reports that Iran is preparing to provide the anti-Talebanforces with 21 of the Iraqi fighter aircraft that were flown to Iranduring the Gulf war. In a separate move, Iran has also made paymentto purchase two Su-22 and one Su-24 fighter-bombers for Ahmed ShahMasood, and has sent Iranian pilots to help plan air operations forthe Northern Alliance against the Taleban.

• Iran has provided political refuge to nearly all theleaders of the Northern Alliance (Rabbani, Hekmatyar, General Ismailand General Malik). When these leaders are not physically in Iran,they travel their at regular intervals to seek guidance and financialsupport.

• Iran convened a two-day meeting on March 4-5 in Mazar-eSharif of the leaders of all the parties of the Northern Alliance, inan effort to rebuild the coalition and reach agreement on the goal ofinstalling a Rabbani government in northern Afghanistan.

Pakistan shared highly classified information with Secretary ofState Madeleine Albright earlier this year about Iranian armsshipments to Afghanistan, officials in Islamabad said.

Iran is joined by Russian in its support for the NorthernAlliance, a fact that was underscored by a joint statement issued byForeign Ministers Kamal Kharrazi and Yevgueny Primakov followingtalks in Moscow on Feb. 25.

Pakistani officials said that Russian was funneling weapons to theNorthern alliance by air and by road, using the Kuliab river insideTajikistan and the road crossing over the Amr (Oxus) river. "Thisarea is so sensitive that the Tajiks refused to allow us to land atthe Kuliab airport to bring in relief supplies after the recentearthquakes," officials said.