|
|
|
Tel: (301) 946-2918. Fax: (301) 942-5341
Copyright © 1994-98, by the Middle East Data Project, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gulf Leaders Welcome Khatami (Serial 4201)
Leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries called for tough international measures against Iraq and extended a hand of friendship toward Iran at their annual summit meeting, held this year in Kuwait on Dec. 20-22. But contrary to reports emanating from U.S. think tanks and academics, there were no calls, either public or private, for any major changes in U.S. policy toward the Persian Gulf rogue states, nor calls for a diminution of the U.S. military presence in the Gulf.
Many U.S. commentators, seeing criticism of U.S. policy from Arab Gulf leaders and editorialists, jump to the conclusion that they are hearing the death-knell of the Clinton administration's "dual containment" policy toward Iraq and Iran.
In fact, the message being delivered by Arab Gulf leaders is quite different. According to Abdallah Bishara, a long-time Secretary General of the GCC who today serves as a top foreign policy advisor to the Emir of Kuwait, the Gulf states "want gunboat diplomacy to stay. This is what has deterred Iran." Bishara, who is Kuwaiti, is understandably more worried about Iraq today than he is about Iran. "We want a continued U.S. military presence, because America's presence in this region is in the interests of the international community, of world peace, and of safe and secure oil supplies."
GCC leaders were favorably impressed by Iranian President Mohammad Khatami during the Tehran summit of the Islamic Conference Organization, and reacted favorably to his overture to travel to Abu Dhabi to negotiate the ongoing crisis over the Gulf channel islands jointly claimed by Iran and the UAE. The issue became inflamed in 1992 when Iran claimed unilateral control over the three channel islands that had been under joint UAE-Iranian sovereignty since 1971. At first, the GCC demanded the case be resolved through bilateral negotiations, which Iran refused. In their 1994 summit, the six Arab Gulf countries shifted position and demanded that the case be argued before an international arbitration court in the Hague, which Iran even more vehemently refused. So President Khatami's offer in late December to negotiate directly with the UAE marks a return to the earlier GCC demand.
Bishara and other GCC officials cautioned that it was much too early to make any definitive judgments about Khatami's offers of friendship, since his own position inside the clerical hierarchy in Iran remained uncertain. "It remains unclear whether the Iranians are sincere about Khatami's offers of friendship and cooperation," Bishara said. "But we sensed a drive to establish a new, bright image, both regionally and internationally. And this itself is a remarkable facet of a new approach. But there is a real cleavage between Khatami and Khamene'i that has yet to be resolved," he added.
One of the main concerns of the GCC countries is Gulf security. The Islamic Republic continues to insist that the Gulf countries establish some form of joint security forum or organization, without the presence of foreign forces (i.e., the Americans), whereas the GCC countries adamantly support the U.S. presence in the Gulf as the only credible guarantee of their security.
"I doubt the Iranians will ever acquiesce to our concerns concerning Gulf security," Bishara said. "They may keep quiet about it. But in the end, they insist that the Gulf is a regional security problem, whereas we believe it should be a global security concern. We do not want an Iranian-designed blueprint for Gulf security," he said.
Other GCC diplomats took similar positions, despite the warm public overture toward the Islamic Republic in the final communiqué of the GCC summit. "We are extending a cordial message to Iran, extending our hand even further, because we believe essentially that the moderate camp has one," a senior Qatari official said. "We hope that this would lead the United States toward more normal relationship with Iran, not necessarily any concessions, but at least to some form of dialogue. We had this opportunity with Rafsanjani in 1989, and we blew it; so let's not squander it this time," the diplomat said.