FDI's Weekly Newswire

The life and [troubled] times of the Islamic Republic of Iran

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FDI WEEKLY NEWSWIRE NO 3

May 6, 1996

The army statement said the war games would be held near the holy city of Qom, 120 km (75 miles) south of Tehran. The exercises have been code-named "Velayat," short for "Velayat-e faghih," the basic doctrine of the Islamic republic that invests all power in a supreme religious "jurisconsult," or leader.

But the opposition Iran Nation's Party, led by Darioush Forouhar, spoke of "a huge anti-riot maneuver... intended to create an atmosphere of terror among the residents of Tehran," that was being conducted by the Revolutionary Guards, not the army.

At least five Revolutionary Guards armored, mechanized, and airborne divisions with hundreds of tanks and artillery were seen moving south of Tehran on Thursday. Revolutionary Guards attack and transport helicopters and Air Force operating hundreds of F-4 and Su-24 fighter-bombers, as well as MiG-29 fighters, were also scheduled to take part in the exercises.

However, the INP claimed that the anti-riot nature of the exercises "has created angry reactions among many high-ranking officers of the Air Force, who do not want to be involved in military operations against civilians."

The INP also claimed that special NBC battalions of the Revolutionary Guards Land Forces will also take part in the operation, "and this fact clearly shows that the Iranian dictatorial regime intends to use its chemical hard-ware against civilians" if they have to confront a mass uprising in the future.

The participation of the NBC battalions was not mentioned in the official Tehran media.

The INP claimed that dissension within the command of the Revolutionary Guards had led IRGC commander Major General Mohsen Rezai to bar the commanders of two main combat units (the 14th Imam Hussein and 27th Mohammad Resoulollah divisions) from taking part in command and control of the operation.

[IRNA 5/2; Salam 5/3; INP statement 5/3; Jomhuri-e Eslami 5/4]

Rafsanjani and daughter attacked

Followers of Majlis speaker Nateq-Nouri have staged demonstrations against President Rafsanjani and his daughter, Mrs. Faezeh Hashemi, who would have received more votes than Nateq-Nouri in the recent Majlis elections if several Tehran ballot boxes had not been annulled. Mrs. Hashemi was physically attacked while cycling in a Tehran park on Wednesday (May 1) by a gang of 20 young men who called themselves member of the state-run Bassij militia.

In a speech the same day before Revolutionary Guards commanders in Tehran, Nateq-Nouri attacked Rafsanjani's government in vitriolic terms, and accused the President of illicit contacts with the United States. "A few years ago the U.S. administration staged a new round of action to normalize relations with the Islamic Republic. The Americans informed the Iranian government that if the Islamic Republic would dismantle the Revolutionary Guards Corps," Nateq-Nouri thundered, "Washington would be ready to begin a dialogue with the Iranian government."

Mrs. Hashemi, who has been photographed wearing blue jeans and has championed women's sports, was singled out for abuse by the bassijis. "They insulted Mrs. Hashemi and damaged public property," an employee at the Chitgar park, six miles west of Tehran, told Reuters.

Also this week, five senior Iranian Shiite Muslim clerics warned against women taking part in cycling, riding and canoeing. In separate fatwas, four ayatollahs said women should not practice such sports in public, and one said they should avoid them altogether.

"Avoiding such acts is, without doubt, the way to salvation," Ayatollah Mousa Shobeiri Zanjani said. (Zanjani was identified by the hard-line daily Sobh as a Grand Ayatollah, although

Hashemi, who has helped create dozens of segregated sports facilities for women across Iran, has defended her views, saying Islam did not oppose women's sports.

Women's sports was one of the issues in contention between conservatives and centrists during recent parliamentary elections in which Hashemi, 33, won a seat in Tehran.

Chitgar park, six miles west of Tehran, opened in 1994 as the first public facility to offer separate cycling tracks for women. But residents say young cyclists often do not respect Islamic rules segregating men and women. [Akhbar 5/2; Sobh, 5/2; Reuter 5/2]

receives death penalty

The Iranian Parliament voted a text on Sunday, May 5, that was immediately applicable the following day, changing Iran's Penal Code to make espionage punishable by death. Courts would be obliged to invoke the death penalty if suspected spies provided information to the United States or Israel, according to the new text which went into effect on Monday, May 6.

The new law targets government officials who "leak" documents, regardless of their classification level, to the United States, Israel, or to Iranian opposition.

[Kayhan, 5/5; AFP 5/5]

Pro-Rafsanjani ministers under scrutiny

Four pro-Rafsanjani ministers are to be hauled before parliament in the coming days, to answer questions regarding the recent election campaign among others.

The four were: Minister of Interior, Minister of Construction Jihad, Minister of Education, and the Minister of Post, Telegraph, and Telephone. [Kayhan, 5/5]

Besharati addresses Law Enforcement Forces

Interior Minister Besharati addressed the chiefs of the Intelligence Department of the Law Enforcement Forces at a meeting in Tehran on Saturday, May 4, in which he instructed them to "respond harshly whenever LEF personnel do not observe the regulations and the policies of this force."

Besharati added that the weakness of the LEF in stopping activities of "non-revolutionary elements" within the LEF "will prepare the ground for infiltration of the LEF by foreign forces."

This is the first time an Iranian government minister has acknowledged in a speech reported in public that there were "non-revolutionary elements" (in other words, dissidents) inside the Law Enforcement Forces which are in charge of repressing any form of popular opposition to the regime. [Jomhuri-e Eslami 5/5]

Iran and China sign "mines and metals" agreement

The Chinese and Iranian ministers of Mines and Metals signed a new cooperation agreement in Tehran on May 1, regarding the construction of new "mineral and Metallic Industrial centers" in Iran.

The agreement as it was officially announced covers an electro-graphite center on Qeshm Island, construction of a new electrolyte factory at an undisclosed location, and two new ferrochrome factories in Bandar Abbas and Baft. The two ministers also agreed to set up a new copper production plant in Khatoun Abad, in central Iran, and spoke of a second possible copper plant in Guina.

Observers in Tehran believed the real subject of the accord involved joint Chinese-Iranian uranium exploration and exploitation.

[Keyhan 5/2]

Garmsar demonstrations

Hundreds of residents of Garmsar city staged a demonstration in downtown Tehran, to protest the election of Dr. Abbas Jandaghi to the fifth Majlis.

The demonstrators claimed his election was won through fraud and influence-peddling by pro-Rafsanjani officials.

The demonstration appeared to be yet another instance of the anti-Rafsanjani movements currently being orchestrated by Majlis speaker Nateq-Nouri. [Keyhan, 5/2]

Senior PTT official arrested

The head of the Foreign Purchasing Department of the PTT ministry was reported arrested by the security forces on Thursday, May 2, according to Keyhan newspaper. While Keyhan did not mention the cause of his arrest, PTT Minister Gharazi and several of his top staff have been implicated in foreign terrorist attacks, most notably the assassination of former Prime Minister Shahpour Bakhtiar in France in August 1991. [Keyhan, 5/2]

State Department targets Iran in Terrorism report

The State Department's yearly report on Terrorism, released on April 30, has singled out Iran as "the premier state sponsor of international terrorism."

Iran "is deeply involved in the planning and execution of terrorist acts both by its own agents and by surrogate groups," had maintained the fatwa against Salman Rushdie, and was providing "safe haven" to the PKK.

The following is the complete section on Iran appearing in the report:

"This year Tehran escalated its assassination campaign against dissidents living abroad; there were seven confirmed Iranian murders of dissidents in 1995, compared with four in 1994. Iranian anti-dissident operations concentrated on the regime's main opposition group, the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), and the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI).

"Leaders of Iranian dissident groups are the most frequent victims of Iranian intelligence and terrorist operations. In 1995 most anti-dissident attacks were conducted in Iraq, in contrast to prior years' worldwide operations. Attacks on Iranian dissidents in Iraq during the year included the shooting deaths on 17 May of two MEK members in Baghdad, the murder on 5 June of two members of the Iranian Kurdish "Toilers" Party (Komelah) in Sulaymaniyah, and the killing of three MEK members in Baghdad on 10 July. The shooting death in Paris on 17 September of Hashem Abdollahi, son of the chief witness in the trial of 1994 that convicted two Iranians for murdering former Iranian Prime Minister Bakhtiar in 1991, may have been an anti dissident attack.

"Sendar Hosseini, a suspect in the 1994 murder of dissident Osman Muhammed Amini in Copenhagen, Denmark, was arrested by Italian police in Bibione, Italy.

"Iran provides arms, training, and money to Lebanese Hizballah and several Palestinian extremist groups that use terrorism to oppose the Middle East peace process. Tehran, which is against any compromise with or recognition of Israel, continued in 1995 to encourage Hizballah, HAMAS, the PIJ, the PFLP-GC, and other Palestinian rejectionist groups to form a coordinated front to resist Israel and the peace process through violence and terrorism.

"Hizballah, Iran's closest client, remains the leading suspect in the July 1994 bombing of the Argentine-Israel Mutual Association (AMIA) in Buenos Aires that killed at least 96 persons. This operation was virtually identical to the one conducted in March 1992 against the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, for which Hizballah claimed responsibility.

"Iran also gives varying degrees of assistance to an assortment of radical Islamic and secular groups from North Africa to Central Asia. For example, Tehran continued to offer the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) safe haven in Iran. Seeking to establish a Kurdish state in southeastern Turkey, the PKK in 1995 launched numerous attacks in Europe and continued its violent campaign against Turkish tourism, including attacks on tourist spots frequented by Westerners. Tehran also provided some support to Turkish Islamic groups that have been blamed for attacks against Turkish secular and Jewish figures.

"Iranian authorities reaffirmed the validity of the death sentence imposed on British author Salman Rushdie, although some Iranian officials claimed that the Government of Iran would not implement the fatwa. Tehran, however, continued to mount a propaganda campaign against Rushdie. In February&emdash;the sixth anniversary of the judgment&emdash;Iran's official news agency IRNA reported that Deputy Foreign Minister Mahmoud Vaezi "underlined the need for the implementation of the fatwa against the author of the blasphemous book The Satanic Verses." Vaezi in May declared that "the fatwa issued by the late Imam [Khomeini] could neither be revoked nor changed by anybody."

"Despite increasing Iranian support for extremist groups and involvement in terrorist operations, President Rafsanjani continued to project publicly a "moderate" image of Iran to Western European countries and Japan to facilitate the expansion of its relations with them. This quest for respectability probably explains why Iran reduced its attacks in Europe last year; Tehran wants to ensure access to Western capital and markets.

"Iran continued to view the United States as its principal foreign adversary, supporting groups such as Hizballah that pose a threat to US citizens. Because of Tehran's and Hizballah's deep antipathy toward the United States, US missions and personnel abroad continue to be at risk."

Dallas conference on Iran

Clinton administration officials addressing an international conference sponsored by the Petro-Hunt Corporation and the Institute for the Study of Earth and Man of Southern Methodist University held on May 1-2, held out little hope for lifting sanctions against Iran, although they came in for strong criticism from oil industry executives and pro-Tehran oil consultants.

The conference's keynote speaker, Stephen Grummon, White House National Security Council director of Near East/South Asian Affairs, made the case for sanctions in no uncertain terms.

"As long as the leadership in Tehran continues to act in ways that undermine regional peace and order, our policy will remain committed to making them pay as high as possible for such actions," Grummon said. Tehran faced a choice, Grummon argued. "You can expect to enjoy the kind of relationship which normal states have with other countries, or you can engage in activities which normal states abhor, but you can't have both."

U.S. policy was driven by Iran's unrelenting pursuit of nuclear weapons, its use of terrorism as a tool of foreign policy, its violent opposition to the Middle East peace process, and its abysmal human rights record, Grummon said. "It's not about the nature of the regime, it's not about personalities, not about ideology, not about religion," Grummon insisted. "The issue is behavior. Toppling the current regime is not the goal of U.S. policy."

Grummon's assertion was disputed by several other speakers, who argued that the changes in behavior in behavior Washington was demanding from Tehran were unacceptable to the current regime and indeed impossible for it to carry out.

Among the 29 speakers were former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Robert Mosbacher, General Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor to Presidents Ford and Bush, Robert Deutsch, director of the U.S. State Department's North Gulf Affairs, and Dr. Manouchehr Ganji, Secretary- General of the Paris-based Flag of Freedom Organization of Iran.

FDI Executive Director, Kenneth R. Timmerman, and Board member Peter Rodman of the Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom, also addressed the conference. (See the Documents section to read their speeches).

Mosbacher and Scowcroft criticized the Clinton administration for embarking on a unilateral policy of isolating Iran, which in Scowcroft's words was "penalizing U.S. business." Instead of the trade embargo on Iran, he argued, "the United States should shore up other Islamic states to help them resist the siren songs of Islamic fundamentalism."

However, Scowcroft acknowledged under questioning that in the final days of the Bush administration "we were trying to decide on a more extreme sanctions policy," but in the end left the decision up to the incoming administration.

The strongest attack on the Tehran regime was launched by Dr. Manoucher Ganji, Secretary General of the opposition Flag of Freedom Organization. Dr. Ganji argued that maintaining the current Tehran regime would mean "continuing acts of terrorism with the possibility of the use of biological or even nuclear weapons in the future." He advocated "an effective and comprehensive sanctions policy" by all Western powers combined. "When the time and conditions are right, an overwhelming majority of the people of Iran will free themselves from the present regime."

Hooshang Amirahmadi, a Rutgers University professor who said he was presenting the "perspective" of the Tehran regime, argued that Iranians "were tired of the mullahs" and that "the Islamic regime must change." A gradual reform process was underway in Iran which could, within two to three years, mean the effective end of the rule of velayat faghih, he said. But he complained: "It seems the U.S. is no longer interested in dialogue, only in unrelenting pressure."

Robert S. Deutsch, director of the State Department's Office of Northern Gulf Affairs, said dialogue with Iran's hard-line leaders without the threat of punishment for misbehavior was meaningless.

"For our part, we have no objection to dialogue, but we believe that dialogue without consequences is ineffective," Deutsch said. He argued that U.S. unilateral sanctions against Iran have already had a major impact by denying Iran foreign investment to develop its oil and gas industry.

Deutsch also took a whack at Europe's policy of "critical" dialogue. "Despite this undeniable pattern of threatening behavior, some countries argue that trade, talk and time have resulted in a moderation of Iranian policies," Deutsch said. "The facts simply do not support this claim." [Iranfax 5/3/96; UPI, Reuters, Dow Jones 5/1/96 and 5/2/96]

Iran may have targeted Israeli embassy

Security has been tightened around Israeli and Jewish buildings in Germany and Belgium, following the March 14 seizure of a heavy mortar and special launcher in an Iranian freighter headed for Germany.

The Shaheed Kola-douz left Bandar Abbas on Feb. 29 and arrived March 11 in Antwerp, Belgium. Its explosive cargo was discovered by Belgian customs officials three days later concealed among containers filled with oil and pickles.

In a report to prosecutors in Antwerp, Belgian army explosives experts said the specially-made mortar had a range of 800 yards, while the rounds were packed with 275 pounds of TNT and were capable of penetrating reinforced buildings of the type used by embassies. The deadly cargo was consigned to an Iranian government freight forwarder and was bound for a private Iranian company in Munich, Germany.

Belgian police questioned and later released included two members of the Iranian Intelligence Ministry who arrived with the cargo aboard the Shaheed Kola-douz, while their German colleagues questioned the owner of the Iranian shipping company in Munich and an associate to whom the cargo was addressed.

According to THE IRAN BRIEF, once German intelligence learned of the cargo and its intended recipient in Munich, they "quietly asked Iran's embassy in Bonn to withdraw several diplomats... involved in this case." Germany had already repatriated "non-essential" personnel, including a number of accredited diplomats, from its embassy in Tehran in November, the Washington-based monthly reported, following the decision to indict Iranian Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahian for his alleged role in the assassination of Iranian Kurdish leader Sadegh Sharafkindi and four others in the Mykonos restaurant in Berlin in 1992. Fallahian's indictment was only officially announced by the German Federal Prosecutor in March of this year.

[London Sunday Telegraph, 4/21; UPI 5/2; The Iran Brief 5/6]

Iran building missile bunkers

Iran is apparently building tunnels along its southwest coast that could be used to launch or store long-range missiles, the Pentagon said Thursday.

U.S. Defense Department officials confirmed a report in Jane's Defense Weekly magazine quoting Army Gen. Binford Peay, chief of the U.S. Central Command, as saying the United States was concerned about the tunnel and was watching it closely.

Peay told Jane's that a deal with North Korea to buy No-Dong missiles, capable of reaching Israel, had fallen through two months ago for financial reasons.

Taken by itself the tunneling was not significant, U.S. defense officials said, but when added to other new Iranian capabilities such as Soviet-made submarines and Chinese-built anti-ship missiles the step became more noteworthy.

"We have limited information about construction along Iran's southwest coast which may be used for storage or forward deployment facilities for missile or missile-related equipment," Navy Cmdr. Joe March, a Pentagon spokesman, said in response to questions about the tunnels Thursday.

"Any action which Iran takes to enhance its military capability is a concern to the United states and its friends and allies in the region and elsewhere," added March, who declined to say when the tunnel work was discovered or how deep they were.

[Janes Defense Weekly 4/29; Washington Times, 5/1; Reuters, 5/2]

Iran sanctions have hurt Tehran regime, expert says

U.S. sanctions against Iran are having a tremendous negative impact on the Iranian economy, U.S. experts said at a seminar in Washington on April 29.

If the U.S. goes ahead with the D'Amato bill that would sanction non-U.S. companies for making new investments in Iran, this could effectively stymie Iran's attempts to repair and expand its oil production capacity.

"It can plausibly be argued that during their first year, sanctions will cost Iran $2 billion, or 10 percent of its foreign exchange receipts," said Patrick Clawson, senior fellow at National Defense University. The recent spike in oil prices have temporarily reduced the impact, he said, although December oil futures show oil prices returning to the $16/barrel price.

Foreign lenders have become more cautious about lending to Iran, and at the same time Tehran has felt compelled to speed up its loan repayments because of U.S. pressure, he said.

As a result, Iran went from being a net borrower of about $5 billion a year from 1990 to 1993 to a net repayer of about $5 billion in the last year, Clawson said. He was quoting recently released figures provided by Iran's Central Bank on Iran's debt repayment schedule.

Iran might also have been spending as much as $100 million a year extra on imports, Clawson said, having to pay middleman fees when non-U.S. firms refused to deal directly with Tehran because they feared they would not be paid in dollars. [Reuters, 4/29]

FDI's Weekly Newswire

FDI WEEKLY NEWSWIRE NO 3

May 6, 1996

CONTENTS: