FDI's Weekly Newswire

The life and [troubled] times of the IslamicRepublic of Iran

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FDI WEEKLY NEWSWIRE NO 3

May 6, 1996

The army statement said the war games would be held near the holycity of Qom, 120 km (75 miles) south of Tehran. The exercises havebeen code-named "Velayat," short for "Velayat-e faghih," the basicdoctrine of the Islamic republic that invests all power in a supremereligious "jurisconsult," or leader.

But the opposition Iran Nation's Party, led by Darioush Forouhar,spoke of "a huge anti-riot maneuver... intended to create anatmosphere of terror among the residents of Tehran," that was beingconducted by the Revolutionary Guards, not the army.

At least five Revolutionary Guards armored, mechanized, andairborne divisions with hundreds of tanks and artillery were seenmoving south of Tehran on Thursday. Revolutionary Guards attack andtransport helicopters and Air Force operating hundreds of F-4 andSu-24 fighter-bombers, as well as MiG-29 fighters, were alsoscheduled to take part in the exercises.

However, the INP claimed that the anti-riot nature of theexercises "has created angry reactions among many high-rankingofficers of the Air Force, who do not want to be involved in militaryoperations against civilians."

The INP also claimed that special NBC battalions of theRevolutionary Guards Land Forces will also take part in theoperation, "and this fact clearly shows that the Iranian dictatorialregime intends to use its chemical hard-ware against civilians" ifthey have to confront a mass uprising in the future.

The participation of the NBC battalions was not mentioned in theofficial Tehran media.

The INP claimed that dissension within the command of theRevolutionary Guards had led IRGC commander Major General MohsenRezai to bar the commanders of two main combat units (the 14th ImamHussein and 27th Mohammad Resoulollah divisions) from taking part incommand and control of the operation.

[IRNA 5/2; Salam 5/3; INP statement 5/3; Jomhuri-e Eslami5/4]

Rafsanjani and daughter attacked

Followers of Majlis speaker Nateq-Nouri have staged demonstrationsagainst President Rafsanjani and his daughter, Mrs. Faezeh Hashemi,who would have received more votes than Nateq-Nouri in the recentMajlis elections if several Tehran ballot boxes had not beenannulled. Mrs. Hashemi was physically attacked while cycling in aTehran park on Wednesday (May 1) by a gang of 20 young men who calledthemselves member of the state-run Bassij militia.

In a speech the same day before Revolutionary Guards commanders inTehran, Nateq-Nouri attacked Rafsanjani's government in vitriolicterms, and accused the President of illicit contacts with the UnitedStates. "A few years ago the U.S. administration staged a new roundof action to normalize relations with the Islamic Republic. TheAmericans informed the Iranian government that if the IslamicRepublic would dismantle the Revolutionary Guards Corps," Nateq-Nourithundered, "Washington would be ready to begin a dialogue with theIranian government."

Mrs. Hashemi, who has been photographed wearing blue jeans and haschampioned women's sports, was singled out for abuse by the bassijis."They insulted Mrs. Hashemi and damaged public property," an employeeat the Chitgar park, six miles west of Tehran, told Reuters.

Also this week, five senior Iranian Shiite Muslim clerics warnedagainst women taking part in cycling, riding and canoeing. Inseparate fatwas, four ayatollahs said women should not practice suchsports in public, and one said they should avoid them altogether.

"Avoiding such acts is, without doubt, the way to salvation,"Ayatollah Mousa Shobeiri Zanjani said. (Zanjani was identified by thehard-line daily Sobh as a Grand Ayatollah, although

Hashemi, who has helped create dozens of segregated sportsfacilities for women across Iran, has defended her views, sayingIslam did not oppose women's sports.

Women's sports was one of the issues in contention betweenconservatives and centrists during recent parliamentary elections inwhich Hashemi, 33, won a seat in Tehran.

Chitgar park, six miles west of Tehran, opened in 1994 as thefirst public facility to offer separate cycling tracks for women. Butresidents say young cyclists often do not respect Islamic rulessegregating men and women. [Akhbar 5/2; Sobh, 5/2; Reuter5/2]

receives death penalty

The Iranian Parliament voted a text on Sunday, May 5, that wasimmediately applicable the following day, changing Iran's Penal Codeto make espionage punishable by death. Courts would be obliged toinvoke the death penalty if suspected spies provided information tothe United States or Israel, according to the new text which wentinto effect on Monday, May 6.

The new law targets government officials who "leak" documents,regardless of their classification level, to the United States,Israel, or to Iranian opposition.

[Kayhan, 5/5; AFP 5/5]

Pro-Rafsanjani ministers under scrutiny

Four pro-Rafsanjani ministers are to be hauled before parliamentin the coming days, to answer questions regarding the recent electioncampaign among others.

The four were: Minister of Interior, Minister of ConstructionJihad, Minister of Education, and the Minister of Post, Telegraph,and Telephone. [Kayhan, 5/5]

Besharati addresses Law Enforcement Forces

Interior Minister Besharati addressed the chiefs of theIntelligence Department of the Law Enforcement Forces at a meeting inTehran on Saturday, May 4, in which he instructed them to "respondharshly whenever LEF personnel do not observe the regulations and thepolicies of this force."

Besharati added that the weakness of the LEF in stoppingactivities of "non-revolutionary elements" within the LEF "willprepare the ground for infiltration of the LEF by foreignforces."

This is the first time an Iranian government minister hasacknowledged in a speech reported in public that there were"non-revolutionary elements" (in other words, dissidents) inside theLaw Enforcement Forces which are in charge of repressing any form ofpopular opposition to the regime. [Jomhuri-e Eslami 5/5]

Iran and China sign "mines and metals" agreement

The Chinese and Iranian ministers of Mines and Metals signed a newcooperation agreement in Tehran on May 1, regarding the constructionof new "mineral and Metallic Industrial centers" in Iran.

The agreement as it was officially announced covers anelectro-graphite center on Qeshm Island, construction of a newelectrolyte factory at an undisclosed location, and two newferrochrome factories in Bandar Abbas and Baft. The two ministersalso agreed to set up a new copper production plant in Khatoun Abad,in central Iran, and spoke of a second possible copper plant inGuina.

Observers in Tehran believed the real subject of the accordinvolved joint Chinese-Iranian uranium exploration andexploitation.

[Keyhan 5/2]

Garmsar demonstrations

Hundreds of residents of Garmsar city staged a demonstration indowntown Tehran, to protest the election of Dr. Abbas Jandaghi to thefifth Majlis.

The demonstrators claimed his election was won through fraud andinfluence-peddling by pro-Rafsanjani officials.

The demonstration appeared to be yet another instance of theanti-Rafsanjani movements currently being orchestrated by Majlisspeaker Nateq-Nouri. [Keyhan, 5/2]

Senior PTT official arrested

The head of the Foreign Purchasing Department of the PTT ministrywas reported arrested by the security forces on Thursday, May 2,according to Keyhan newspaper. While Keyhan did not mention the causeof his arrest, PTT Minister Gharazi and several of his top staff havebeen implicated in foreign terrorist attacks, most notably theassassination of former Prime Minister Shahpour Bakhtiar in France inAugust 1991. [Keyhan, 5/2]

State Department targets Iran in Terrorism report

The State Department's yearly report on Terrorism, released onApril 30, has singled out Iran as "the premier state sponsor ofinternational terrorism."

Iran "is deeply involved in the planning and execution ofterrorist acts both by its own agents and by surrogate groups," hadmaintained the fatwa against Salman Rushdie, and was providing "safehaven" to the PKK.

The following is the complete section on Iran appearing in thereport:

"This year Tehran escalated its assassination campaign againstdissidents living abroad; there were seven confirmed Iranian murdersof dissidents in 1995, compared with four in 1994. Iraniananti-dissident operations concentrated on the regime's mainopposition group, the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), and the KurdishDemocratic Party of Iran (KDPI).

"Leaders of Iranian dissident groups are the most frequent victimsof Iranian intelligence and terrorist operations. In 1995 most anti-dissident attacks were conducted in Iraq, in contrast to prior years' worldwide operations. Attacks on Iranian dissidents in Iraq during the year included the shooting deaths on 17 May of two MEK members in Baghdad, the murder on 5 June of two members of theIranian Kurdish "Toilers" Party (Komelah) in Sulaymaniyah, and thekilling of three MEK members in Baghdad on 10 July. The shootingdeath in Paris on 17 September of Hashem Abdollahi, son of the chiefwitness in the trial of 1994 that convicted two Iranians formurdering former Iranian Prime Minister Bakhtiar in 1991, may havebeen an anti dissident attack.

"Sendar Hosseini, a suspect in the 1994 murder of dissident Osman Muhammed Amini in Copenhagen, Denmark, was arrested by Italian policein Bibione, Italy.

"Iran provides arms, training, and money to Lebanese Hizballah and several Palestinian extremist groups that use terrorism to opposethe Middle East peace process. Tehran, which is against anycompromise with or recognition of Israel, continued in 1995 toencourage Hizballah, HAMAS, the PIJ, the PFLP-GC, and otherPalestinian rejectionist groups to form a coordinated front toresist Israel and the peace process through violence andterrorism.

"Hizballah, Iran's closest client, remains the leading suspect inthe July 1994 bombing of the Argentine-Israel Mutual Association(AMIA) in Buenos Aires that killed at least 96 persons. Thisoperation was virtually identical to the one conducted in March 1992against the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, for which Hizballahclaimed responsibility.

"Iran also gives varying degrees of assistance to an assortment of radical Islamic and secular groups from North Africa to CentralAsia. For example, Tehran continued to offer the Kurdistan Workers'Party (PKK) safe haven in Iran. Seeking to establish a Kurdish statein southeastern Turkey, the PKK in 1995 launched numerous attacks inEurope and continued its violent campaign against Turkish tourism,including attacks on tourist spots frequented by Westerners. Tehranalso provided some support to Turkish Islamic groups that have beenblamed for attacks against Turkish secular and Jewish figures.

"Iranian authorities reaffirmed the validity of the death sentence imposed on British author Salman Rushdie, although some Iranian officials claimed that the Government of Iran would not implement the fatwa. Tehran, however, continued to mount a propaganda campaignagainst Rushdie. In February&emdash;the sixth anniversary of thejudgment&emdash;Iran's official news agency IRNA reported thatDeputy Foreign Minister Mahmoud Vaezi "underlined the need for theimplementation of the fatwa against the author of the blasphemousbook The Satanic Verses." Vaezi in May declared that "the fatwaissued by the late Imam [Khomeini] could neither be revokednor changed by anybody."

"Despite increasing Iranian support for extremist groups andinvolvement in terrorist operations, President Rafsanjani continuedto project publicly a "moderate" image of Iran to Western Europeancountries and Japan to facilitate the expansion of its relationswith them. This quest for respectability probably explains why Iranreduced its attacks in Europe last year; Tehran wants to ensureaccess to Western capital and markets.

"Iran continued to view the United States as its principal foreign adversary, supporting groups such as Hizballah that pose a threat toUS citizens. Because of Tehran's and Hizballah's deep antipathytoward the United States, US missions and personnel abroad continueto be at risk."

Dallas conference on Iran

Clinton administration officials addressing an internationalconference sponsored by the Petro-Hunt Corporation and the Institutefor the Study of Earth and Man of Southern Methodist University heldon May 1-2, held out little hope for lifting sanctions against Iran,although they came in for strong criticism from oil industryexecutives and pro-Tehran oil consultants.

The conference's keynote speaker, Stephen Grummon, White HouseNational Security Council director of Near East/South Asian Affairs,made the case for sanctions in no uncertain terms.

"As long as the leadership in Tehran continues to act in ways thatundermine regional peace and order, our policy will remain committedto making them pay as high as possible for such actions," Grummonsaid. Tehran faced a choice, Grummon argued. "You can expect to enjoythe kind of relationship which normal states have with othercountries, or you can engage in activities which normal states abhor,but you can't have both."

U.S. policy was driven by Iran's unrelenting pursuit of nuclearweapons, its use of terrorism as a tool of foreign policy, itsviolent opposition to the Middle East peace process, and its abysmalhuman rights record, Grummon said. "It's not about the nature of theregime, it's not about personalities, not about ideology, not aboutreligion," Grummon insisted. "The issue is behavior. Toppling thecurrent regime is not the goal of U.S. policy."

Grummon's assertion was disputed by several other speakers, whoargued that the changes in behavior in behavior Washington wasdemanding from Tehran were unacceptable to the current regime andindeed impossible for it to carry out.

Among the 29 speakers were former U.S. Secretary of CommerceRobert Mosbacher, General Brent Scowcroft, former National SecurityAdvisor to Presidents Ford and Bush, Robert Deutsch, director of theU.S. State Department's North Gulf Affairs, and Dr. Manouchehr Ganji,Secretary- General of the Paris-based Flag of Freedom Organization ofIran.

FDI Executive Director, Kenneth R. Timmerman, and Board memberPeter Rodman of the Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom, alsoaddressed the conference. (See the Documents section to read theirspeeches).

Mosbacher and Scowcroft criticized the Clinton administration forembarking on a unilateral policy of isolating Iran, which inScowcroft's words was "penalizing U.S. business." Instead of thetrade embargo on Iran, he argued, "the United States should shore upother Islamic states to help them resist the siren songs of Islamicfundamentalism."

However, Scowcroft acknowledged under questioning that in thefinal days of the Bush administration "we were trying to decide on amore extreme sanctions policy," but in the end left the decision upto the incoming administration.

The strongest attack on the Tehran regime was launched by Dr.Manoucher Ganji, Secretary General of the opposition Flag of FreedomOrganization. Dr. Ganji argued that maintaining the current Tehranregime would mean "continuing acts of terrorism with the possibilityof the use of biological or even nuclear weapons in the future." Headvocated "an effective and comprehensive sanctions policy" by allWestern powers combined. "When the time and conditions are right, anoverwhelming majority of the people of Iran will free themselves fromthe present regime."

Hooshang Amirahmadi, a Rutgers University professor who said hewas presenting the "perspective" of the Tehran regime, argued thatIranians "were tired of the mullahs" and that "the Islamic regimemust change." A gradual reform process was underway in Iran whichcould, within two to three years, mean the effective end of the ruleof velayat faghih, he said. But he complained: "It seems the U.S. isno longer interested in dialogue, only in unrelenting pressure."

Robert S. Deutsch, director of the State Department's Office ofNorthern Gulf Affairs, said dialogue with Iran's hard-line leaderswithout the threat of punishment for misbehavior was meaningless.

"For our part, we have no objection to dialogue, but we believethat dialogue without consequences is ineffective," Deutsch said. Heargued that U.S. unilateral sanctions against Iran have already had amajor impact by denying Iran foreign investment to develop its oiland gas industry.

Deutsch also took a whack at Europe's policy of "critical"dialogue. "Despite this undeniable pattern of threatening behavior,some countries argue that trade, talk and time have resulted in amoderation of Iranian policies," Deutsch said. "The facts simply donot support this claim." [Iranfax 5/3/96; UPI, Reuters, Dow Jones5/1/96 and 5/2/96]

Iran may have targeted Israeli embassy

Security has been tightened around Israeli and Jewish buildings inGermany and Belgium, following the March 14 seizure of a heavy mortarand special launcher in an Iranian freighter headed for Germany.

The Shaheed Kola-douz left Bandar Abbas on Feb. 29 and arrivedMarch 11 in Antwerp, Belgium. Its explosive cargo was discovered byBelgian customs officials three days later concealed among containersfilled with oil and pickles.

In a report to prosecutors in Antwerp, Belgian army explosivesexperts said the specially-made mortar had a range of 800 yards,while the rounds were packed with 275 pounds of TNT and were capableof penetrating reinforced buildings of the type used by embassies.The deadly cargo was consigned to an Iranian government freightforwarder and was bound for a private Iranian company in Munich,Germany.

Belgian police questioned and later released included two membersof the Iranian Intelligence Ministry who arrived with the cargoaboard the Shaheed Kola-douz, while their German colleaguesquestioned the owner of the Iranian shipping company in Munich and anassociate to whom the cargo was addressed.

According to THE IRAN BRIEF, once German intelligence learned ofthe cargo and its intended recipient in Munich, they "quietly askedIran's embassy in Bonn to withdraw several diplomats... involved inthis case." Germany had already repatriated "non-essential"personnel, including a number of accredited diplomats, from itsembassy in Tehran in November, the Washington-based monthlyreported, following the decision to indict Iranian IntelligenceMinister Ali Fallahian for his alleged role in the assassination ofIranian Kurdish leader Sadegh Sharafkindi and four others in theMykonos restaurant in Berlin in 1992. Fallahian's indictment was onlyofficially announced by the German Federal Prosecutor in March ofthis year.

[London Sunday Telegraph, 4/21; UPI 5/2; The Iran Brief5/6]

Iran building missile bunkers

Iran is apparently building tunnels along its southwest coast thatcould be used to launch or store long-range missiles, the Pentagonsaid Thursday.

U.S. Defense Department officials confirmed a report in Jane'sDefense Weekly magazine quoting Army Gen. Binford Peay, chief of theU.S. Central Command, as saying the United States was concerned aboutthe tunnel and was watching it closely.

Peay told Jane's that a deal with North Korea to buy No-Dongmissiles, capable of reaching Israel, had fallen through two monthsago for financial reasons.

Taken by itself the tunneling was not significant, U.S. defenseofficials said, but when added to other new Iranian capabilitiessuch as Soviet-made submarines and Chinese-built anti-ship missilesthe step became more noteworthy.

"We have limited information about construction along Iran'ssouthwest coast which may be used for storage or forward deploymentfacilities for missile or missile-related equipment," Navy Cmdr. JoeMarch, a Pentagon spokesman, said in response to questions about thetunnels Thursday.

"Any action which Iran takes to enhance its military capability isa concern to the United states and its friends and allies in theregion and elsewhere," added March, who declined to say when thetunnel work was discovered or how deep they were.

[Janes Defense Weekly 4/29; Washington Times, 5/1; Reuters,5/2]

Iran sanctions have hurt Tehran regime, expert says

U.S. sanctions against Iran are having a tremendous negativeimpact on the Iranian economy, U.S. experts said at a seminar inWashington on April 29.

If the U.S. goes ahead with the D'Amato bill that would sanctionnon-U.S. companies for making new investments in Iran, this couldeffectively stymie Iran's attempts to repair and expand its oilproduction capacity.

"It can plausibly be argued that during their first year,sanctions will cost Iran $2 billion, or 10 percent of its foreignexchange receipts," said Patrick Clawson, senior fellow at NationalDefense University. The recent spike in oil prices have temporarilyreduced the impact, he said, although December oil futures show oilprices returning to the $16/barrel price.

Foreign lenders have become more cautious about lending to Iran,and at the same time Tehran has felt compelled to speed up its loanrepayments because of U.S. pressure, he said.

As a result, Iran went from being a net borrower of about $5billion a year from 1990 to 1993 to a net repayer of about $5 billionin the last year, Clawson said. He was quoting recently releasedfigures provided by Iran's Central Bank on Iran's debt repaymentschedule.

Iran might also have been spending as much as $100 million a yearextra on imports, Clawson said, having to pay middleman fees whennon-U.S. firms refused to deal directly with Tehran because theyfeared they would not be paid in dollars. [Reuters, 4/29]

FDI's Weekly Newswire

FDI WEEKLY NEWSWIRE NO 3

May 6, 1996

CONTENTS: