Copyright ©1997 by Dow Jones & Co/Kenneth R. Timmerman
Paris - The European Union is bracing for an April 10 verdict from a Berlin court that has the potential of "profoundly disrupting" Europe's relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, senior European officials say. The court is expected to take nearly an entire day to read out sentences against an Iranian national and four Lebanese henchmen accused of having gunned down four Iranian Kurdish dissidents in the Mykonos restaurant in Berlin on September 17, 1992.
The German state prosecutor, Bruno Jost, has publicly accused the government of Iran of having orchestrated and carried out the murders of Kurdish leader Sadegh Sharafkindi and his colleagues. On Nov. 15, Jost asked the Berlin court to hand down life sentences against two of the defendants, Kazem Darabi and Abbas Rhayel, whom he identified as Iranian government intelligence agents. While this is not the first time the Iranian regime has been in the dock for killing dissidents, the 3-year Berlin court hearings have proved to be far more embarrassing than similar cases tried in France, Italy, or Turkey.
For one, this is the longest public trial the Iranian authorities have had to endure. But more importantly, information provided publicly by a former top aide to Iranian President Hashemi-Rafsanjani, by a former Iranian President, and by German government intelligence officials has succeeded in Òopening the door a bit to the headquarters of Iranian state terrorism and casting a look at the killing machine," State Prosecutor Jost said. Worried Officials Senior European officials (Many of whom requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the case) interviewed separately in two European capitals only two weeks before the sentencing date said the EU has been "closely monitoring" the Iranian government reaction to the Mykonos case, and would "react vigorously and in unison" in the event the Islamic Republic or its agents launch counter-attacks against any EU government or citizen
. A crisis working group comprised of officials from the 15 EU member states has been established to monitor the Iranian reaction to the verdict, both inside Iran and in Europe itself, where Iranian intelligence networks remain extremely active and have the potential of launching fresh terrorist attacks. The fact that the German court will read its verdict in public without releasing any supporting documents for nearly a full year afterwards has some officials concerned that Tehran will react to sensationalist charges, and that in turn Europe will be forced to take extreme reactions that most would prefer to avoid. "There is going to be no opportunity for nuance here," one official said. "We're going to get the headlines, and the headlines only. And this is what the Iranians are going to react to." The key issue is whether the German court will convict top Islamic Republic officials of complicity to murder.
After dramatic testimony from former Iranian President Abolhassan Bani Sadr (1980-1981) last August, the court issued an international arrest warrant for Iranian Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahian-Khuzestani for having orchestrated the assassinations. Bani Sadr told the court that Fallahian was the most important member of a top secret Council for Special Operations, which "decides who becomes a death candidate." Operational plans for the assassinations were approved by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamene'i and by President Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the top two leaders of the Islamic Republic, Bani Sadr told the court. "Without their agreement, carrying out the attack was just as unlikely as it would have been without massive support from the state, for example through passports, plane tickets, money, special telephone numbers,'' he said.
Tehran reacted to Bani Sadr's testimony by requesting that the Germans arrest the former President and extradite him to Iran. In an interview with an Iranian daily newspaper on August 28, Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahian warned that continuation of the Berlin trial would have "effects on our relations with Germany and German interests in Iran." To its credit, the German court persisted despite these attempts at intimidation. Bani Sadr's claims were buttressed by dramatic testimony from Abdolghasem Mesbahi, a former aide to President Hashemi-Rafsanjani and a senior intelligence official who oversaw foreign terrorist networks (initially identified only as "Witness C"), who claimed that Messrs. Rafsanjani and Khamene'i had personally signed the order authorizing the assassination of the rebel Kurdish leader in Berlin.
Within hours of these revelations in mid-November, angry demonstrators surrounded the German embassy in Tehran shouting "Death to pro-America Germany," and the Iranian parliament launched a closed-door review of Iranian-German ties. The crisis only dissipated when Rafsanjani himself intervened, after having received a 2-page letter from German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. A German court "cannot destroy the historic relations between Iran and Germany," the Iranian president said. The "real culprits" behind the Mykonos trial were "Israel and the United States." It remains unclear what promises - if any - Chancellor Kohl made in his letter to Rafsanjani. But German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel reaffirmed that Germany and the European Union would continue their "critical dialogue" with Tehran, regardless of the outcome of the Mykonos trial. That will depend, however, on just how far the court goes with its verdict; and how the Iranians take the bad news.
In the best case, the court will only convict the members of the hit team itself. But even here, the head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Peter Frisch, told the German daily Tageszeitung last week, the reaction from Tehran is likely to be dire. "We must prepare ourselves for demonstrations, riots in Iran, and considerable disturbance in foreign relations," he said. Most European observers believe the court will go one step further, and convict Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahian of having been a direct participant in the 1992 killings. "The question then becomes, what is Fallahian's standing within the current government?" one official said. "Clearly, the most rational response for Tehran, if they wish to avoid a clash with Europe, will be to simply dump Fallahian." But the EU is also preparing for less rational responses, and for more radical verdicts from the Berlin court. In the event the court finds credible the evidence presented by "Witness C," then the April 10 verdict will include some form of condemnation of top Islamic Republic officials, including President Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i.
Although Germany has no conspiracy laws, making it unlikely the pair can be convicted, the Berlin judge could issue a more nuanced statement deploring their role in having ordered the killings. And this could spark a dramatic increase in tensions with Tehran. While few EU officials believe Tehran will allow radical groups to actually seize the German embassy in Tehran, they expressed concern that the Iranian government will respond in more indirect ways. "They might arrest European businessmen on trumped up espionage charges - they've done it in the past - or step up attacks on dissidents inside Iran and in Europe," diplomats in one capital said. Europe's Warning A senior diplomat from another country, whose government has tended to be sympathetic toward the Islamic regime, offered Tehran a way out - but also a warning. "We don't have a holy war against Iran, and we don't see their system as intrinsically perverse. We have to live with states - even delinquent ones. And independent of what the United States chooses to believe, our dialogue with Tehran is truly critical. But if the Iranian regime or its agents take any sort of violent action against Germany in retaliation for the Mykonos verdict, Tehran needs to understand that we will stand by our German allies - as will every EU member state. The same goes if Iran is shown to have been directly involved in the Khobar Towers [Dhahran] bombing in Saudi Arabia." "If there is any Iranian retaliation for the verdict," other EU officials said, "we will respond collectively and at the EU level.
In the worst case - a violent attack against the German embassy in Tehran or renewed terrorist attacks on European soil, - we would seriously consider a break in diplomatic ties with Tehran. This would be regrettable, but it would become necessarily and unavoidable." Given the dire predictions Tehran's friends in Europe are making, it is difficult to understand how Europe can maintain its "critical dialogue" with a regime that considers terrorism to be a legitimate policy tool. The Mykonos trial, and the exemplary German court that has conducted it, have shown once and for all that this regime cannot be reformed, and that even so-called "moderates" such as President Hashemi-Rafsanjani fully support the terror machine. Now it is time that Europe drew the appropriate conclusions and supported concrete measures aimed at punishing the regime for its unacceptable behavior, and at encouraging Iranians from the democratic opposition to change the regime.
Mr. Timmerman is director of the Middle East Data Project, Inc., a strategic trade consulting firm in the Washington, DC area, and is Executive Director of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran, a human rights monitoring group.